Strategic Paper Series · The Glasswing Trilogy

From Spud to Scarcity

Lithium, frontier access, and the two channels of exclusion

Abstract

Frontier capability is allocated through two channels the Global South does not control: restricted access programmes and formal governance forums. This paper traces both, from the extension of restricted frontier cyber-defense programmes to the composition of the Seoul Declaration, the Frontier Model Forum and the AISI network, against the material reality that the region exports the lithium on which the infrastructure runs. Every claim is verified against primary sources, including UNU-INWEH water-use data and S&P Global battery-cost analysis.

Why this paper exists

The Global South supplies the lithium that powers frontier AI infrastructure while remaining outside both frontier cyber-defense access and the forums where frontier AI is governed. This paper documents the pattern with primary-source data.

AIEONME publishes every Strategic Paper bilingually, with a fact-check of every claim against primary sources before release. The full paper, including methodology, sources and limitations, is available as a PDF below.